A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
